Secrets of merchanting on the GE (Grand Exchange)

Yesterday I sold Bandos armor and Armadyl armor sets which I bought a week ago during the "so called" market crash in Runescape, thus making about 10M profit on this transaction (could have been 20M, but I decided to keep one of each sets for my personal use instead of selling them). While such type of merchanting is not what I usually do (read about short term speculation on the GE here), I am still quite happy with the outcome.

In this article I will try to outline my reasonings which led to the successful trade. Why did I buy these armor sets on Sep 1 and not a day later? Why did I sell them yesterday instead of waiting till today (when the price started to drop again)? I do hope that this analysis will help you to make good merchanting decisions in the future and prosper in Gielinor.

September 1. Purchase.

Sky is falling, people are dumping their expensive weapons and armors on the Grand Exchange and proclaiming yet another big market crash in Runescape. The GE database Bandos Plate 30 days chart shows something like this:

Similar charts are for Bandos Tassets and Armadyl Armor.
Why buy them? Wouldn't they drop even further?


Now here is what I thought:

• First of all, there is no market crash, as all the vital commodities are not affected. It means that the price drop in expensive weapons and armors is not sustainable and is bound to end rather soon (when panic selling stops).
• People at the GE and on forums (such as TruthScape) has already started to buy Bandos godswords. A lot of people merchant Bandos godswords, so when the market turns, it first visible in the Bandos godsword sales rather than in sales of related items such as Bandos plate and tassets.
• The godsword seems to be reversing (not visible on the chart yet!), it means that the bottom for related items is near. Better to hurry and buy a few sets of Bandos and Armadyl armor while they are still selling for the lowest price.
• Done.

If I would had waited another day for the actual price reverse, I would had have difficulties in buying these items. And surely not for the lowest price!

September 7. Selling.

The pull back has occurred. Prices did not went up to their previous level, but they ran up quite a bit nevertheless. The GE database Bandos Plate 30 days chart shows something like this:


Similar charts are for Bandos Tassets and Armadyl Armor.
Should I sell now? Or wait a bit more?

Here is what I thought:

• The pull back like this has happened before for other items and commodities and usually the price wouldn't go back to the original level. At least not quickly. Therefore I should expect the pull back to be cut short very soon.
• Let's watch my "indicator" (Bandos godsword) price daily.
• On Sep 7 Bandos godsword dropped in value. It means that I have already waited too long and should sell the armor sets quickly.
• Done.

I couldn't sell everything for the highest price. Bandos plate and tassets went for the medium, but Armadyl armor set still went for the highest. Quite logical, as again more people trade Bandos armor comparing to Armadyl armor.

I wouldn't claim that the same rules and indicators will always work, but I am pretty sure that such kind of reasoning is applicable to merchanting in Runescape. And, as you can see, it is definitely not a rocket science. Good luck!