Truth Behind Merchanting Clans in Runescape

Thanks to Icey Dan1, here is a link to an article written by "retired" Goldmerch Runescape merchanting clan leader. As you might expect, he confirms that he personally and his peers got their fortunes by scamming their own fellow clan members.

Yes, he also talks about beating merchanting clans from inside by selling earlier, but it is just the same type of scamming, isn't it? So when you think about joining a mecrhacning clan, think about this too: do you really want those RSGPs that badly that you are ready to resort to despicable methods and scam other players?

P.S. in case you were wondering, that's why I don't point to existing and legit Runescape blogs that promote this type of money making in Runescape.

Chessy018, the richest Runescape player?

Picked this video from TruthScape. I couldn't even imagine one player can hoard so much money in the game. Apparently it is possible to get more than 2.1B of RSGP. In fact, much more...

Just one warning before you watch the video. It is essentially an advertisement of Chessy019 merchanting clan, and quite professionally made one. I already wrote about it before, but want to reiterate it again - unless you are specifically looking for such clan, don't fall into a trap. You will be better off merchanting solo or not merchanting at all than being duped by merch clan leaders.

Runescape Grand Exchange Central

One more resource for Runescape merchants and investors. I just found it and it looks promising. I like several aspects of the tool, especially promise to store 50-60 days worth of data. 30 days limit Jagex's version has does hurt. Anyway, if you are interested in Runescape merchanting, take a look.

Risks and Rewards of Runescape Merchants

Every time some big ticket item's price reverses its course, every big Runescape forum sprouts new topics about "lowly merchants", "pump and dump schemes" and "how merchants ruin the game for honest players". It's so repetitive that it is not even funny. If anything, it is sad and pathetic. People who never really made an effort to understand Runescape merchanting are eager to bash it and use merchants as scapegoats for their own inability to make desirable amount of money within the game.

First of all, it is a huge (yet common) misconception, that Runescape Merchants make most of their money by trading big ticket items and/or participating in "pump and dump schemes". While I can't deny that there are people and clans involved in "pump and dump" (I personally don't), I would still claim that vast majority of money made from merchanting in Runescape is made through "intraday" or "0-1 cycle" transactions which involve medium price items or even commodities. These transactions go completely unnoticed by the general Runescape population, but to Runescape merchants they provide stable low risk/high profit results. I wrote about it earlier this year and I can confirm that nothing has really changed since then. The items I trade has changed, their prices has changes, Jagex put more restrictions on volumes but I still get my average 1.5-2M a day quite easily spending no more that 10 minutes on swapping orders. And I am sure I could at least double the returns by merchanting more aggressively.

Now let's go back to the notorious big ticket items trades. Players who try to merchant these items put a lot of money at stake and, if they make just a little timing mistake, they may end up with huge losses. But at the same time if they predict the price movements just right, the rewards could be quite substantial. I want to show you one example which illustrates how risky and yet how profitable such trades might be.

Let's look at the most recently added big ticket item - Dragon Platebody (well, of course). The plates were released along with the While Guthix Sleeps quest and possibility to obtain them was tied to this most challenging quest. The initial price tag was set high and it spiked even more during the next few days (up to 39M). Then it was discovered that it was possible to get pieces of the dragon armor from Tormented Demons as well as realization of plate "not as superior" stats settled in. The price plummeted and went all the way down to 10-12M in two weeks. All this time there was no way to merchant this item, but Runescape merchants were waiting and pondering on a question where was the turning point. This is always the most important question. You have to buy the item while it is still on decline (thus taking a risk of stepping in too early). Jump in a day later and you won't get any profit. Jump in two days later and you loose huge money. Fortunately for me, Tim made very good prediction about the turning point and I trusted his judgment: I bought 7 Dragon Plates for 10.4M each (still during the decline at the minimum price). The very next day the price flattened and it was not possible to buy more for minimum or even medium, so I added 5 more plates for 12M each. Then the price went up and I was selling 1 plate per day trying to catch the inevitable turning point. I sold 1 plate for 13.5M, then another for 14.3M (both for maximum price). Then I missed a day and when I came back to the game, the turning point was already reached! I couldn't sell the remaining 10 plates even for minimum. One day passed, then another. Finally I sold 6 plates for 12.7M and remaining 4 for 12.1M. So...

• Average cost per plate: 11.125M (total 133.5M).
• Average return per plate: 12.7M (total 152.4M).

I ended up with 18.9M of pure profit (mostly thanks to Tim clue for the entry point and my trust in his prediction).

Now let's look at 3 alternative scenarios, all three of them very possible and could have happened to me during this trade.

Scenario 1
I could be less greedy and sell 11 plates at 14.3M mark.
The profit would be very good: 33.7M !!! Almost twice as much as I really got!

Scenario 2
I could decide to check Tim's prediction by waiting one extra day before entering. In this case I would buy all of my plates for 12M each.
The profit would be: 8.4M. Not bad, but not very good either considering the risks.

Scenario 3
Finally, if I would wait yet another day for the price to turn before entering the trade, I would have to buy the plates for something like 13.1M.
Then I would have LOST: 4.8M

And let's not even talk about possibility of buying the plates just before they started to move back down (hoping that the upside move wasn't over).

So what does this example show? The point I am trying to make that even for experienced Runescape merchants big ticket items trades are always very risky. In this particular trade I could have ended up with a loss of 4.8M, or profit up to 33.7M. And, frankly, both possibilities were equally likely. I was simply fortunate to end up with profit.

So, when players are moaning about merchants making it difficult to buy big ticket items and thus ruining the game, they don't have a clue about what is really going on and what they are talking about. And ignorance, by all means, is not a virtue.

Secrets of merchanting on the GE (Grand Exchange)

Yesterday I sold Bandos armor and Armadyl armor sets which I bought a week ago during the "so called" market crash in Runescape, thus making about 10M profit on this transaction (could have been 20M, but I decided to keep one of each sets for my personal use instead of selling them). While such type of merchanting is not what I usually do (read about short term speculation on the GE here), I am still quite happy with the outcome.

In this article I will try to outline my reasonings which led to the successful trade. Why did I buy these armor sets on Sep 1 and not a day later? Why did I sell them yesterday instead of waiting till today (when the price started to drop again)? I do hope that this analysis will help you to make good merchanting decisions in the future and prosper in Gielinor.

September 1. Purchase.

Sky is falling, people are dumping their expensive weapons and armors on the Grand Exchange and proclaiming yet another big market crash in Runescape. The GE database Bandos Plate 30 days chart shows something like this:

Similar charts are for Bandos Tassets and Armadyl Armor.
Why buy them? Wouldn't they drop even further?


Now here is what I thought:

• First of all, there is no market crash, as all the vital commodities are not affected. It means that the price drop in expensive weapons and armors is not sustainable and is bound to end rather soon (when panic selling stops).
• People at the GE and on forums (such as TruthScape) has already started to buy Bandos godswords. A lot of people merchant Bandos godswords, so when the market turns, it first visible in the Bandos godsword sales rather than in sales of related items such as Bandos plate and tassets.
• The godsword seems to be reversing (not visible on the chart yet!), it means that the bottom for related items is near. Better to hurry and buy a few sets of Bandos and Armadyl armor while they are still selling for the lowest price.
• Done.

If I would had waited another day for the actual price reverse, I would had have difficulties in buying these items. And surely not for the lowest price!

September 7. Selling.

The pull back has occurred. Prices did not went up to their previous level, but they ran up quite a bit nevertheless. The GE database Bandos Plate 30 days chart shows something like this:


Similar charts are for Bandos Tassets and Armadyl Armor.
Should I sell now? Or wait a bit more?

Here is what I thought:

• The pull back like this has happened before for other items and commodities and usually the price wouldn't go back to the original level. At least not quickly. Therefore I should expect the pull back to be cut short very soon.
• Let's watch my "indicator" (Bandos godsword) price daily.
• On Sep 7 Bandos godsword dropped in value. It means that I have already waited too long and should sell the armor sets quickly.
• Done.

I couldn't sell everything for the highest price. Bandos plate and tassets went for the medium, but Armadyl armor set still went for the highest. Quite logical, as again more people trade Bandos armor comparing to Armadyl armor.

I wouldn't claim that the same rules and indicators will always work, but I am pretty sure that such kind of reasoning is applicable to merchanting in Runescape. And, as you can see, it is definitely not a rocket science. Good luck!

Guide to merchanting on the GE (Grand Exchange)

In his recent post Steve described several ways to merchant on the Grand Exchange. All valid ones, don't miss. Merchanting in Runescape is far from dead, on contrary it is thriving and it is without a doubt the easiest and quickest way to make a lot of money in the game.

As I wrote before I merchant (or rather speculate) on the GE as well, though using different method from what Steve described. My method yields about 3M every day, rain or shine. Steve's suggestions may be a bit less reliable, but with greater profit potential.

But no matter how you look at it, there are multiple ways to profitably merchant on the GE. And we are talking about millions here...

So when you hear someone crying about merchanting being dead in the Runescape after the GE, just ask: "Have you tried?" Or maybe not... Indeed, you already know the answer.

Making money on GE (The Grand Exchange)

I was looking for a good guide on GE trading and/or speculation and found nothing. There are tips here and there, but not all of them are good and nothing was really worth studying. There is also a common sense approach: watch the prices, buy low and sell high in a week or so after the prices are up. That works, of course, I personally made 6 millions by doing just that with Santa Hats. But it is not where big money are. Then I suddenly realized that I might be an expert on GE speculation. After all I am making about 3 millions daily on GE spending 15-20 minutes of playing time...

But before I share with you my strategy, let's get a few things straight:

a) I know that many people consider speculation on GE (or on a stock market which is pretty much the same) unethical. I am NOT going to argue with it. If you feel that way, just stop reading this post and add me to you "lowly merchants" black list. I will only say, that risks are involved and research has to be made in order to be successful in this type of merchanting.

b) I am NOT going to disclose which items I am trading. Find yours! The thing is that if many people start trading the same item using this method, it might become more difficult to profit from it. But I can assure you that there are many good items out there to trade.

c) If you are indeed going to use my strategy and if you are successful in doing it, be ready for a change in your gameplay. It could be a problem, because there is a potential to make more money than you need and you may loose enjoyment of using your skills for "money making" schemes and activities. Now I am at the point when I can pretty much "buy skills" and I have to restrain myself from doing it in many cases. For instance, I don't want to buy Palm and Magic tree seeds for my Farming, though I could afford it now, or buy tons of Red Chinchompas for raising Ranged. Decide for yourself and be careful.

Also, please, understand that I wasn't a merchant before GE. Selling staff in pre-GE time was always a chore for me and I welcomed GE with both hands. For a while I was only selling my backlog of items there, then the prices went down and I made a few solid investments in cannonballs and pure essence. Both worked nicely and I suddenly got 20M in cash at the beginning on January. Then I did my Santa Hat and Green H'ween Mask trades, which added another 6.5M to the stack. But all that was normal "common sense" merchanting, which many of the players do. Finally at the end of January I started to research trading patterns on GE and experiment with short term trades, basically speculation. It worked, I am up to 140M and this is way more than I need...

All right, enough of history. Here is the strategy:
1. Look for items or commodities which are in "moderate" demand, meaning that they are needed by many players but not being sold instantly at the medium, low of high prices. That's the key.
2. Buy such items for either price slightly above the low or slightly above the medium price. It depends on an item and whether it is on a rise of fall at the moment. You'll have to do a research there, monitor the prices and use your common sense and see if some new game feature affects these items. "Slightly" means 1-10 gp for commodities and may go up to 1K-50K for other items. Note that your order will NOT be filled immediately! It is very important. You have to wait, sometime hours till it starts filling in. Sometime it never will, too bad - which could mean that the "slightly" was defined poorly or the item is not good for speculation.
3. Sell the items at the price slightly below the high or slightly below the medium price. The same as in #2.
4. After you find items you like, use bulk of your free cash to buy/sell a lot of them. Again "a lot" differs from item to item. It may be 10 or 100 or 200 or 100000. Really depends or the volume the item is trading on GE, which again you have to find by experimenting with it.
5. Find at least 6 such items and use all 6 slots for the trading. Watch out for price changes and repost your orders after one happens.
6. Be ready, that some of the items may become unprofitable over time, keep researching to have alternatives!
7. Don't expect to get the same profit margin from all items. You won't. For instance, the ones I use give me about 160K, 180K, 500K, 750K, 250K, 700K per buy/sell cycle. But my 500K+ ones work once a day, while 160K and 180K work several times a day.

So why does it work and why it is not a bug abuse? Well, because, the GE works perfectly well, what we are dealing with here is impatience of Runescape players. When an item does not sell, for medium or high price instantly, they often choose to sell it lower instead of waiting. So basically, the profit comes from taking this margin from impatient players.

That's pretty much it.
Good luck!